企业财务危机、代理问题与信用风险实证研究

---来自台湾科技上市公司的风险预警

摘要：利用统计分析方法构建科技型企业信用风险预警模型，找出影响公司绩效的影响因素，以达到事前预警与风险管理之成效。基于实证分析，考虑代理问题，区分经营权与所有权是否同一，比较其差异。实证结果发现，经营权与所有权分开，影响公司绩效的因素有“财务结构、偿债能力、经营能力、获利能力与现金流量”指标。研究表明，职业经理人可降低负债比率，提高总资产周转率、每股现金流与营业毛利润、再投资比率、业务外收入率，亦可实行多元化经营以降低经营风险，增强获利能力，提高公司绩效。

关键词：财务危机；代理问题；信用风险模型；财务风险管理

An Empirical Study on Financial Crisis, Agency Problems and Credit Risk Models

--- Based on high-tech quoted Corporation in Taiwan

Abstract：This paper primarily used statistical methods to establish logistic credit risk models in electronic companies, discussed the agency problem on whether management and ownership belong to the same person. That made it be possible to predict in advance the probability of electronic companies experiencing financial risk. In the empirical analysis, the author built up a credit risk model using financial ratios and agency problems as the explanatory variables and the logistic regression model as the statistical method. Finding, In the case where management and ownership are separated, empirical results suggested that the key performance indicators are the financial structure, the solvency, the operating performances, the profitability, and the cash flow. It had also been found that chief executive officer (CEO) reducing the cash flow reinvestment ratios, and enhance ratio of non-operating revenue and expenses could reducing credit risk. It had also been found that reducing the debt ratio can enhance the total assets turnover, the cash flow per share, and the gross margin of the company. Therefore, this paper may be useful for researchers and practitioners who are focusing on agency problems, financial information, and corporate performance implementation.

Keywords：Financial Crisis, Agency Problem, Credit Risk Models, Financial Risk Management

一、引言